“There’s far too much variance during actual events because humans are often unpredictable.”

Before you read anything else today, check out Ben’s new one at A Wealth Of Common Sense about the limitations of polls and surveys. And I would say these limitations are even more applicative to the investment markets than they are to gauging political outcomes – because investors, unlike voters, have to contend with the fact that each day’s market activity may actually affect their decision-making proc...

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source https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/11/05/theres-far-too-much-variance-during-actual-events-because-humans-are-often-unpredictable/